Skip to main content
Home > Publications
Share this: Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on Linkedin

Joining Forces to Tackle Obesity, 21-22 January 2002

 

Transcript : The Global Epidemic

 

Speaker

 

Professor Philip James, Chairman of the International Obesity Taskforce

 

ANDREW HILL: Well, we’ll have a short period for discussion after our next speaker who is Professor Philip James. Phil is currently Chairman of the International Obesity Taskforce, and Phil is going to supplement Bill’s talk and "fillet his slides", as he said to me beforehand. Phil.

 

PHILIP JAMES: Thank you very much. [Change of slide] It’s a great honour to be here and to hear the outcome of these astonishing reports from the government which, from an international perspective, is a very unusual development and I’m delighted to be here, returning to England to discover what’s going on. My task is to tell you, in a sense, about the rest of the world and, taking account of Bill’s analyses, I’ve at least gone halfway and produced some data which simply amplifies, and stay away from some of the issues that he has dealt with, so don’t -- I would entirely endorse his sentiments, and what I’d like to do is, if you like, to give you some reassurance that you’re not alone with the United States in confronting this problem.

 

A few -- 1997, we produced in the International Obesity (inaudible) Report, to which Bill Dietz has made a major contribution, an analysis of the global problem because the World Health Organisation, like all Ministers of Health and ministries, did not believe it was important. And this came out about a year ago, and I’m not going to summarise all its implications because they are many, and last week some of those were at the Executive Board of the World Health Organisation, where it’s now right up at the top of their agenda. [Change of slide] The real point about the report was we attempted to systematise a classification, which I won’t go through, and the United States data. The issue now also conform with this, as do most places in the world.

 

[Change of slide] What I’d like to emphasise however, is that as you go round the world and you (inaudible) the system to be a much more technical report input than we’ve heard in the general messages from Bill Dietz. If you look at the BMI distribution of the population, this is the sort of curve you get in the early 1980s in China, and this, I guess, is Bill Dietz’s curve in the United States, and if you go across the world you see different groupings. And everybody’s been talking in the medical clinical world, about people with a BMI over 30, frankly obese. But what you can immediately see is that it reflects an astonishing shift in the whole of society, which is why it’s so marvellous that the Audit Office has seen this conceptually as a societal issue.

 

Here’s the standard classification of overweight. You have a vastly increased number of people, once you add the overweight to the obese. And here, in dotted lines, is the new -- I call it the neuroses -- of the Asian groups who believe that they have such unusual susceptibility, to which I’ll come, that they in fact should specify anybody over a body mass index of 23 as in danger and in need of medical advice and care.

 

[Change of slide] Now, we had data this morning -- from the whole question of looking at the women -- and it’s quite interesting because it’s been a sexist issue for a long time. I’d like to point out that, in these data we obtained a long time ago from China in 1982, when nobody ever bothered about obesity, characteristically you see the curve for women is different from men. It’s broader and you have more women at both ends of the spectrum. [Change of slide] And if you go round the world and take different communities, and say, "How do we compare the proportion of obese men with obese women", then almost every community in the world -- and this is literally across the world -- you find, in general, more obese women than men, and we now believe that this is biological and not simply social. Of course it interacts with diet and physical activity as well, as we discovered from studies in Brazil.

 

[Change of slide] Now, what’s happening in the world? Well, way back seven years ago, we published this data from a World Health report which showed that, at that stage, we were concerned, particularly in places like India, with chronic energy deficiency or underweight. But to our astonishment -- and these are all nationally representative data -- we found a host of third world countries where they had really no problem of underweight -- these are adults -- but they already had a sizeable proportion of the population were already, in the early 1990s, overweight or indeed frankly obese. So it looked as though something was going on globally.

 

[Change of slide] Let’s come closer to home -- and this is much more up to date -- and a collation of data that we’ve been provided, not all of it meticulously representative, but it gives a reasonable view -- and to our astonishment you can look at different regions, and we’re currently working with WHO looking at the massive epidemic -- and in different regions -- we specified the regions, as I will shortly, as having particular problems, but (several inaudible words), you see that in fact there’s an amazing difference in the prevalence of overweight. But here we are, dear old -- dear young England -- near the top of the league, and you have to go to some unusual countries, such as the Netherlands and Norway, before you see the striking contrast. [Change of slide] And recently, at a Commonwealth Ministers of Health meeting, we had to try to persuade the third world ministers, many of them medical, who absolutely did not believe that obesity was a problem. We’ve put together, for women, some Commonwealth data. And here is a series of countries within the Commonwealth. We put in the UK data there. We’re still outclassed by Jamaica and, of course, the Pacific Islands have an appalling problem with 75% of some populations obese and ½ of the population essentially being treated for diabetes. And here’s rural India, and up there is urban India. If you wanted to classify the biggest concerns in the world, one would specify India, as I’ll come to shortly.

 

[Change of slide] Now, what about the globe, as such? Well, Marterel(?) did an analysis with a whole host of different studies, and he took women and looked at the proportion of overweight and obese in different societies. And Bill Dietz may be cheered up in that the United States is not top there. The Middle East has an appalling problem, as have the old central communal(?) economies, the former Soviet Union, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and so on. Then comes Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and apparently very few problems in South Asia because we are choosing the classic cut-off point which I started with.

 

[Change of slide] If, in fact, you then go to Asia, you will see -- and here are the different ethnic communities in Malaysia -- you will see that if you look -- and this is very recent data, published in the medical journals in Malaysia -- you will see the different ethnic groups. Their average BMI is already climbing rapidly almost to the 25 mark, to the average of the population, and we think that this shows that there’s a major secular trend going on, which you can show in some countries, and here’s Mauritian data, where there’s been an epidemic of diabetes of enormous proportions that people are very concerned with, and both men and women have a similar increase. In Mauritius, however, they are very focused on trying to introduce new public health policies and are beginning to make some headway.

 

[Change of slide] Now, you’ve already heard that there’s a parallel development of diabetes, and if you look at the predictions of where we’re going to be, in diabetes terms, then we find charts -- and this is quite an old chart from the World Health Organisation -- showing that most societies are going to be confronted with a huge medical burden from diabetes. And, of course, what is now becoming recognised by diabetologists as well is that the underlying factor is, in fact, the excess weight gain. [Change of slide] Now, I’d just like to illustrate this with data which were provided to me by the president of the Chinese Medical Association, where they looked at the -- and I think it’s recently been published as well -- where they’ve looked at the adult diabetes rates in single ethnic groups -- and nobody can quibble about specifics or susceptibilities -- and here in rural China, diabetes rates are 2 to 3%. And as you go to Beijing, they’re double, and you can then go to the Chinese communities in different societies until you get to Chinese, 3% of Mauritian(?) to Chinese. 17% of them are diabetic, and the prediction that we’ve been discussing with the Beijing authorities is that actually, they already have about 35 million diabetics, and we predict they’ll have 150 million diabetics within the next 10 to 15 years unless some new developments occur.

 

[Change of slide] Now, forgive this slightly complicated graph. The question is, are the Asians unusually sensitive to diabetes? And the only data we’ve been able to obtain that are truly representative, with meticulous analyses of where those people got diabetes, comes from Japan and from Denmark. And here, as your body mass index goes up, as you get heavier, up goes your rates of diabetes, and as you get older you become increasingly susceptible, which is why the graphs from the Japanese are different, with a very high rate in the older, heavier Japanese. Here is precisely comparable data from Denmark, which suggests that -- and these are 60 year olds -- if the danger is the same as the Japanese, the line should be up there, so there appears, and there’s a big debate about this, to be unusual susceptibility to diabetes, and that’s in Asians and that’s actually been recognised here in Britain for many years in terms of Asian immigrants. [Change of slide] And it’s for that reason that the proposition has come from a meeting in Hong Kong that, in fact, we should have different standards for perhaps Asia and (inaudible) other developing countries.

 

[Change of slide] Now Bill noted that he’d produced this fascinating paper last week, looking at the issue of abdominal obesity, where one’s waist is increased and, if you look at waist/hip ratios, you’ll have a high value. And the unusual feature -- and this comes from Guatemalan data -- is that, if you look at women or men, and you stand by the amount of fat that they have on board, it looks as though some women and men have far bigger pot bellies, even though they’re from the same community. And that relates to whether or not those same individuals were stunted in childhood. And there’s increasing evidence now that there’s some mysterious link between early events in childhood and how one then deposits the fat and accumulates, and we’re currently working with the Mexican government, where I’m intrigued by Bill’s data because we found the same in Mexico, comparing it with US data. And it looks as though there’s a marginal increase in susceptibility of diabetes and other co morbidities, that the dominant effect comes from this abdominal obesity, which is so common in third world countries.

[Change of slide] Let me skip this which highlights -- and come to this concept. If you look at the third world community, with their risk of short stunted children growing up to be short, with pregnant women producing low birth weight babies. Currently 1/3 of babies in India are of low birth weight. In Bangladesh ½ of all babies born are small. And what seems to be developing is subsequent rapid growth. The combination of some early nutritional affect, and rapid changes in early childhood, appears to be making children much more susceptible to increasing insulin resistance and, if you like, the impending diabetes problem, as well as high blood pressure, and that’s now been shown in Jamaica, in India, and in South African studies, and they’re really very meticulous. [Change of slide] So if we look, for example, at India, and we ask how many -- even women in India -- have pot bellies at different levels of their body weight, here we find that as soon as you get over this cut-off point, the standard one, the vast majority of women have abdominal adiposity with all its unusual complications to which Bill referred. So we do seem to have a particular problem in the third world with adults, and those who are coming here may actually be, putting it crudely, programmed to be unusually sensitive to the complications of unhealthy weight gain.

 

[Change of slide] Now what about children? We’ve already heard about the increasing epidemic in the US. Here is a recent publication that Bill was very involved with, getting standards which are now being applied throughout the world. And when Bill Dietz, with our colleagues, put together a set of data, [change of slide] here are third world countries, where one wouldn’t imagine for a moment that children obesity is a problem, and both girls and boys are showing quite often remarkable rates. Here’s the Middle East, and here is Latin America. It’s of immense concern in most parts of the world. In China, ministers of health are suddenly focusing on the major problem of ‘the little Emperors’ who are tubby and on their way to early problems. [Change of slide] And here is English data, using the same standard of criteria, compared with Australian data over there. Here’s the epidemic occurring in England -- boys and girls -- really a very recent kick-off. And here’s Canadian data -- slightly different criteria but very close to it -- and here in Australians. We do not have data for third world countries on the secular basis, but there seems to be a major epidemic underway already.

 

[Change of slide] Now, we’ve already heard a bit about the burden of disease and we’ve highlighted the fact that both nutrition and physical activity need to be considered. I thought it might be useful, since we’re now currently working to try to find out what the burden of ill-health is, to put together the factors which we now recognise to relate to diet, and then specifies physical inactivity separately. And if you look at the first report on this, which came out recently from Australia, you’ll find that high blood pressure, high cholesterol levels, lack of fruit and vegetables, and obesity which was -- this contribution has been halved to take account of physical inactivity. Those alone give you about 15% of the total burden of ill-health in an Australian society. Compare that with tobacco, which we all agree is a huge problem and, in fact, those problems, without even considering physical inactivity, exceeds even the burden coming from tobacco. So I think we really need to re-gear ourselves and think in a completely novel way, which is why the National Audit Office report was so welcome. [Change of slide] And if one looks at the past -- I won’t dwell on this -- as one looks at data from around the world, many different countries have now highlighted the enormous problem, and that problem of course increasing with age, and being particularly a major problem if, in fact, one is obese. And so -- this data comes from Finland -- now there are data emerging from different countries all coming up with the same story.

[Change of slide] Now, we’ve already heard about the transformation of food practice. That transformation occurs very early, and here’s (inaudible) recalculation of the old analyses done 40 years ago, looking at what happens when societies develop. As one becomes more affluent, the fat intake goes up -- and it’s actually contrary to what I saw -- particularly animal fat, and the complex carbohydrate, as it used to be called, goes down, with an increase in sugar consumption result and there is a steady shift in societal food patterns, but also in the macro-nutrient intake. And I’ve deliberately chosen the rural areas because, if you take the urban areas, as many of you know if you’ve been to third world countries, you will find fast foods emerging as a major contribution, as far as the people are concerned, in slum areas, because of the problems of transport in fruit and vegetables into cities in these circumstances. And it’s very frequent in Thailand, in India, to see dramatic changes as villages enlarge.

 

[Change of slide] We’ve known for some time that, putting it crudely, as the fat intake goes up above 15%, then the likelihood of having obesity escalates. If one looks at whether or not we inadvertently eat too much if we have a wonderful fat-enriched diet [change of slide], the answer in the studies in here in the UK is that we do not appreciate the fat content of our diet, and it’s very easy to overeat a high fat diet, and accumulate an extra two days’ supply of food, inadvertently without realising it, within a week. So this episodic pattern of high density, high sugar, high fat diets, which has not been looked at, as Bill highlighted, is an extremely important problem. [Change of slide] Recently, in Quebec a few weeks ago, (inaudible), in control of trials from Denmark, showed that (inaudible) to reconsider the pattern in terms of soft drinks, or intermittent intakes, because it may be that that has a different effect from, in fact, just the macro-nutrient composition that Bill emphasised.

 

[One slide skipped, change of slide] Let’s skip that. And let’s come to -- the problem, therefore, is not that we should necessarily blame the food area, or the physical inactivity area. The problem is, how do we manage to put this together? And the difficulty at the moment is to find coherent evidence, where you take account of both factors. It would seem that, in fact, if one is hopelessly inactive, you need to be on a very high quality diet, low in fat and probably low in sugars, and with fruit and vegetables, to be in energy balance and not gain weight. If one’s physically very active, you can get away with a less appropriate diet. [Change of slide] But how much physical activity do we need? Here is the avoidance of obesity shown in, not US data which is just coming out now, but in China, and in Sweden and Finland. If you have people susceptible to diabetes, and you change their activity, drop their weight and change their diet, you need both factors, it would appear, and very modest weight losses.

[Change of slide] And, if in fact, one asks what are we doing about it, we have to recognise that physical activity is dropping markedly with age. You all know this and, therefore automatically, we have to be eating less in terms of calories with age. That’s why there’s a parallel between ageing, declining activity, and increasing bodyweight in so many societies. [Change of slide] And here is ITS(?) recent analyses, which will emerge shortly, suggesting that if you actually ask, " How active should one be?", with the physical activity level perhaps twice what you just burn in basal rates, then and only then do you get, with your BMI, reasonably down towards the normal level, if in fact one is on a characteristic western diet. And James Ellison(?), who’s here, has been heavily involved in that. Currently, our advice is that walk 30 minutes a day, and that will help cardiovascular disease, as indeed it does. The new evidence in -- it’s actually, the more we look at it, the more powerful it is -- suggests that unless we change our diet, then in fact we’ll have to be very active to in fact maintain bodyweight stability. And if we agree with all of that, then I’m going to decide that I won’t put on weight by being simply active. If I walk a dog, God help me, I will need to go for 11 hours a week at this modest level of activity, but even walking at a low (inaudible) pace, I need to do 10 hours of extra walking. And it’s only when you become very vigorous that you can get away with it on a short term base. So I think we have to rethink the integration of food and activity.

 

And here, I’m just going to finish with one example where they have not yet cracked the problem of obesity, but they’re on their way to taking an integrated approach to societal change. Here is Finland, where they had a major campaign with 19 guidelines, and the whole society involved in trying to prevent cardiovascular rates, which were horrendous. In 15 years they’d trebled the vegetable intake. They also markedly reduced the fat intake, and here’s low fat milks going down. A complete transformation of the way in which they were eating and, in association with that, despite some improvements in men [change of slide] on smoking, they’d dropped the blood pressure, on average, by 10 units, which is an astonishing change which would imply that every single citizen had been on a hypotensive drug to bring their blood pressure down -- no it wasn’t, it was changing diet with some increase in physical activity. And here’s a huge drop in cholesterol as well. And here’s the enormous drop in cardiovascular disease. [Change of slide] The recent data, which will emerge shortly, show that even the drop in the total fat intake of 34%, the inactive men and women are still getting fat in Finland, but even if they’re moderately active, then they in fact have stabilised. So I think that we need the combination of food and physical activity, and one’s not going to do this if one just approaches it on a medical basis, which is why it’s so marvellous to be in a forum where we can discuss the major precipitants of this epidemic which, unless we do something, will actually escalate with huge consequences for health. Thank you very much indeed.

 

ANDREW HILL: Thank you very much Phil. We have about five minutes before lunch to discuss the outcome of these two presentations. If there are people who want to ask questions, would you like to stick your hands up. It’s actually quite difficult to see at the back but if I call out people, would they stand up, say their name, where they’re from, and probably shout from the back so everybody can hear. Yes?

 

QUESTION FROM FLOOR: (Several UE words) and I could see you clearly Sir. I’m a (UE) overseas medical graduate, thanks to the (several UE words) Health Service, and I must thank the National Audit Office for bringing the director from the Centre for SCDC to this country. Though politically we condemn the Americans for their hegemony, here I must appreciate the Americans for spending huge money in establishing such centres, and I am here inviting them to condemn the European heads for failing to establish the centres to quantify such problems, but particularly the speed in which we are going to establish a European military task-force. My (several UE words) solution, my ambition is that (UE) at(?) the SCDC, in countries even like Afghanistan, so that in the future we should spend all of the money wisely to prevent such disease, so that we can (UE) ministers of health to the poorest of the poor. Welcome, yes.

 

ANDREW HILL: Thank you. I think that was a point, and I think the point there was that it would be really nice if the SCDC in this country, and in fact everywhere, that’s a very -- politically, I’m not sure that’s a vote winner but --

INAUDIBLE COMMENT FROM FLOOR

 

ANDREW HILL: Okay. Thank you, thank you. Susan?

QUESTION FROM FLOOR: From the MRC in Cambridge. Bill, the data you showed us on breastfeeding is something that I think is only just beginning to be recognised as important in terms of a prevention of obesity. Two things: can you be sure that that is appropriately adjusted for all the other social factors which we know co-associate with breastfeeding practices and secondly, if it is, do you have any idea what the mechanism is? Is that through appetite control or what do you think the mechanism might be?

 

WILLIAM DIETZ: Bless you. Those are both good questions. Most of these studies, to the extent they’re code adjusted for potential confounding factors like socio-economic class but SES or income or education may not completely capture all those factors. Regardless, I think we can argue that breast milk is still the best food for infants, rather than -- that cows milk should be reserved for calves. But it is possible that the adjustments here don’t capture other variables. I was surprised actually, in this report, that rates of the initiation and sustaining of breastfeeding in England are actually lower than they are in the United States. In the United States, about 60% of women initiate breastfeeding but, at six months, only about 25% of women continue to do so and I think that’s actually double the rate in the UK, as I understood the NAO statistics.

 

The second question had to do with mechanism, and although there are higher insulin levels associated in infants who are formula fed, my own bias is that this is a parenting issue -- that when one feeds formula from a bottle, what the gauge of infant satiety is how much the infant has finished, not the infant’s cues about satiety. And I think that even modest degrees of over-feeding or urging children to eat more may be certainly as important, if not more important than any physiologic differences which exist between breast milk and formula.

 

ANDREW HILL: Thank you. We have a question at the back, yes?

QUESTION FROM FLOOR: Yes, my name’s Dr Bedes(?). I’m a doctor with an interest in the biology of nutrition. We base our nutritional advice on the physical unit, the calorie, but looking at the body biologically, the use of energy that we metabolise is glucose, and if we extrapolate that back to diet, it’s sugars and refined carbohydrates which are the high energy substances in our diet which tend to increase with westernisation. And Type 2 diabetes is a disease or malfunction of carbohydrate metabolism. I just wonder what the panel thought about refined carbohydrates as aetiology for obesity?

 

WILLIAM DIETZ: Well there has been increasing interest in the glycemic effect of food on insulin responses and I think that’s an intriguing area. The relationship however, for high glycemic diets in the development of obesity is less well established. I think that’s still a hypothesis. It’s certainly reasonable to argue that foods with complex carbohydrate, as Philip indicated, are probably a healthier diet, I mean particularly from the prevention point of view, where we should be increasing vegetable and fruit consumption. But I don’t think we yet have the data to argue that a high glycemic diet is obesagenic.

 

INAUDIBLE QUESTION FROM FLOOR

WILLIAM DIETZ: Well I hope what I led you to believe was that we need to understand why it’s different. The problem with the Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System is that it’s only 80 questions, and a good number of those questions have to do with other behaviours other than diet and physical activity, and I don’t think we have enough detail to understand why Colorado is different. But people who live in Colorado tell me it’s because there’s a greater emphasis on being outdoors and being physically active, and I’m prepared to believe that, but in fact we don’t have hard data that indicates that that’s the case.

 

ANDREW HILL: Okay, a final question, the man with the microphone wins.

 

QUESTION FROM FLOOR: Thank you. I’m (inaudible) Greene, I’m the National (inaudible) for Children at the Department of Health. I’ve really enjoyed this conference -- it’s so important, particularly the last two speakers. There’s been repeated reference this morning to the influence of advertising for children. I wonder whether the two speakers could comment on what steps are being taken internationally to influence food manufacturers in their advertising, and then specifically looking at the impressive data from Finland. Did that coincide with a change in national advertising of foodstuffs for children?

 

PHILIP JAMES: The whole issue of advertising for children is a major political issue. I understand that the Swedish government tried to propose that there should be at least an analysis of this, broadly they proposed that there should be limitations when they had the presidency in the previous six months, and that in fact was rapidly turned down because, as one of the most senior officials said to me in Geneva last week, there’s enormous power and industrial and commercial interests in actually maintaining that advertising. Speaking certainly as a UK person, we’ve put in with the Department of Health and Education’s involvement, and the whole public sector received(?) the proposals in 1997 after the election of the new government, which asked that we should look at the issue of advertising to children. That was seen to be a highly inflammatory analysis. It’s remarkable to me that the Public Accounts Committee has asked for precisely the same analysis, and what I think we’re going to find is that we are going to find different approaches in Europe, and this is becoming an issue. The Finnish data did not coincide with that. There were huge changes in specifying the quality of food to be given to pre-school children to school children. The restaurants were focused on the dietetic. Food industry was heavily involved in transforming the nature of their diet. We’ve got to confront the fact that if you read the marketing analyses of those things that are advertised on television, the marketers -- and you can see it in any economic report -- focus on targeting children because it means that there’s a huge opportunity. Britain is said to be lagging behind the United States, so there are wonderful commercial opportunities for junk food, as it’s called, and confectionery and soft drinks, and if you talk to people in the UK, they’ve seen the Mediterranean world as an enormous commercial opportunity to sell these products. So I think we have a genuine dilemma and, rather than sort of ignoring it we should actually engage and begin to sift through what is appropriate because frankly, this is an epidemic and an issue that’s emerging in most countries of the world.

 

WILLIAM DIETZ: I certainly agree with Philip’s viewpoint, and we’ve taken a somewhat different strategy in the United States in this area. What we know is that there’s a relationship of television viewing to obesity. What we don’t know is how that’s mediated, and although -- commercial speech -- there’s a history of the regulation of commercial speech in the United States, I think it’s premature and unlikely -- an argument that television advertising should be controlled is unlikely to be terribly successful. Our strategy therefore has been to focus on the time that children are watching television, as well as the responsibility of parents for offering appropriate foods. We have a protocol that’s now in a pilot status, in which we’re looking at the effect of counselling around the division of responsibility between parents and children around food choices, and control of the television set on infinite(?) obesity in susceptible 3 to 7 year olds. The (inaudible) for susceptibility here is defined as a BMI between the 85th and 95th percentile, and/or one or both parents overweight. The control of television is self evident. I think the strategy is how to give parents alternative strategies, because I think television does play an important role and, as I indicated, I think that it’s pretty tough to recommend that television be controlled if there aren’t opportunities for free play. The division of responsibility between parents and children is what I think mediates a lot of food choices, and the division of responsibility means that parents are in charge of what children are offered and children can choose to eat it or not, and how much. And I think that television advertising blurs that division of responsibility by putting children in the position of making decisions for families. And, as I think I indicated, the decisions about where families eat outside of the home are largely driven by children, which is a consequence of television advertising directed at children, and my view is that control of the television set is going to reduce those requests and those types of behaviours.

 

ANDREW HILL: Okay, that’s a good reminder both how industry should be responding and to the advertising for children are two of the breakout sessions this afternoon -- if you haven’t signed up, then you can go downstairs and sign up. Thank you for your excellent questions.