Press Release - Ministry of Defence: The United
Kingdom’s Future Nuclear Deterrent Capability
5 November 2008
The programme to maintain the UK’s
nuclear deterrent beyond the life of the current system, with the
introduction into service of the first of a new class of submarines
in 2024, is at an early stage, but the Ministry of Defence has made
good progress establishing programme management arrangements and
engaging stakeholders. The timetable is challenging, however, with
very little room for delay, and the MoD needs to manage key risks
if continuous nuclear deterrence is to be maintained.
The programme is currently in a two
year initial concept phase for the new class of submarines. This
requires a series of important and difficult decisions to be taken
by September 2009 to keep the programme on track. The MoD has
appointed a Senior Responsible Owner to co-ordinate these decisions
and other work to inform future decisions and to allocate funding
to the various elements of the programme.
The current predicted cost of
procuring the new nuclear deterrent is between £15 billion and £20
billion (2006-7 prices), as outlined in the 2006 White Paper,
The future of the UK’s nuclear deterrent. The operating
costs for the deterrent once the new class of submarines comes into
service are estimated to be similar to those of the current
deterrent. These are initial estimates, however, and the MoD
recognises the need by September 2009 to produce robust estimates
of whole-life costs. There are major areas of uncertainty in the
budget, including the provision for contingency and VAT, which need
to be resolved.
The submarine industry is a highly
specialised industrial sector with a number of monopoly suppliers
and there are real difficulties in providing the right incentives
for these suppliers to deliver to time and budget.
The tight timetable set for
ensuring the seamless transition from the present Vanguard class of
submarines to the future class is challenging. The Vanguard class
is likely to start leaving service from the early 2020s and the
programme requires the future nuclear deterrent to be in service by
2024. The MoD needs to establish now how far the service life of
the Vanguard class can be safely extended.
A further risk to the programme
timescale – of which the MoD is well aware - is a shortage of
nuclear-related skills in industry and within MoD - potentially
aggravated by competition from civil nuclear projects.
Tim Burr, head of the
National Audit Office, said today:
"Much groundwork has been
done in the two years since the Government decided to embark on a
programme to maintain the country’s submarine-based nuclear
deterrent capability beyond the life of the current system.
Critical decisions about the design of the future submarine class
and the commercial strategy required to incentivise monopoly
suppliers now need to be taken so that the Ministry of Defence can
stick to its demanding schedule and assure value for money over the
life of the programme."
Notes for
Editors
- Press notices and reports are available from the date of
publication on the NAO website, which is at
www.nao.org.uk. Hard copies can be obtained from
The Stationery Office on 0845 702 3474.
- The Comptroller and Auditor General, Tim Burr, is the head of
the National Audit Office which employs some 850 staff. He and the
NAO are totally independent of Government. He certifies the
accounts of all Government departments and a wide range of other
public sector bodies; and he has statutory authority to report to
Parliament on the economy, efficiency and effectiveness with which
departments and other bodies have used their resources.
Press Notice 47/08
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