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This briefing responds to a request from the Environmental Audit Committee. It examines the emissions forecasts (hereafter referred to as projections”) that informed the Climate Change Programme Review carried out between September 2004 and March 2006 (referred to here as the 2006 Review).

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In April 2006 the National Audit Office published a briefing for the Environmental Audit Committee on UK climate change policy. This work was produced to inform and assist the Committee’s further work on climate change, and set out options for further Committee scrutiny.

After discussion of the briefing in June and July 2006, the Committee signalled that it wished to follow up in more detail the emissions forecasts (hereafter referred to as “projections”) that informed the Climate Change Programme Review carried out between September 2004 and March 2006 referred to here as the 2006 Review.

This briefing responds to the Committee’s request and earlier interest. It focuses on the reliability of the projections and their sensitivity to key assumptions. A separate briefing being prepared for the Committee examines the use of data on costs and cost effectiveness in the 2006 Review.

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