• Since the inclusion of severe space weather in the UK’s National Risk Register in 2011, the government has invested in improving its forecasting capability
  • There are gaps in the government’s preparedness which must be addressed including the level of resilience the UK requires and outlining actions for business and citizens to take
  • The NAO recommends that the government improves the testing of its response plans and decides what long-term forecasting capability the UK requires

The government has boosted the UK’s resilience to severe space weather by strengthening its forecasting capability and testing how it would respond to an event – but ongoing issues such as an incomplete cross-government understanding of how sectors plan to respond to an emergency need to be resolved, according to a new National Audit Office (NAO) report.  

Space weather refers to phenomena primarily from the sun that can cause changes to the atmosphere and environment in near-earth space, including solar flares which are sudden bursts of electromagnetic energy. A severe space weather event could cause disruption to air travel, localised power outages, and disruption to satellite services1. 

The government has invested in developing the UK’s capability in forecasting space weather, which has led to the Met Office’s work in this area being well respected internationally. Additionally, the government is taking steps to increase the UK’s resilience to the potential impacts of space weather, drawing on expertise in the scientific community to assess the risks. 

The government has set an ambition to build the UK’s resilience to the risk of severe space weather, while also collaborating with international partners and making science and technology integral to addressing the risk. DSIT coordinates the government’s work on severe space weather, having formally taken on this role in December 2025. 

In 2025-26, it spent around £6.7 million on the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre, and to date it has committed around £300 million to the European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) Vigil space weather mission2. 

Limitations in scientific understanding and departmental planning, such as how short disruptions to global navigation satellite systems would affect transport mean that the government does not yet fully understand the full range of possible impacts. As a consequence, the potential economic impact of a severe space weather event is also uncertain but in 2022 was estimated to be £9 billion. 

But forecasting continues to be complex, with the forecasting window ranging from no notice to 96 hours depending on the type of space weather, and the resilience of the UK’s space weather monitoring capability remains vulnerable. 

Additionally, roles and responsibilities3 for managing the risk remain unclear, accountabilities could be stronger, and the government has not set out clear outcomes for what it is looking to achieve. While the government’s 2021 strategy included 12 high-level commitments aimed at improving resilience, this did not include what outcome it was looking to achieve, the level of residual impacts it is willing to accept or any cost estimates.  

The Met Office has worked collaboratively with some sectors, for example the electricity sector, to develop specialist forecasts. But other sectors continue to find the technical information difficult to interpret and there is more to do to make forecasting information useful for government officials and industry. 

In February 2026, DSIT commissioned updated response plans from departments, building on work by DESNZ to create and gather information on response plans. 

The government has begun testing these plans, but has yet to run a full simulation exercise involving local responders. Other government departments have carried out exercises, but there is no systematic learning from these.   

The Met Office has undertaken work to raise public awareness of space weather, and the government has an outline communications plan that it plans to revise and expand. But it has not yet developed pre-agreed messages for the public in the event of an emergency, and the government can do more to engage local responders and businesses to ensure its whole-of-society response is effective.  

To address gaps in its preparedness for severe space weather events, the NAO recommends that the government: 

  • defines what outcomes it is seeking and tests plans against a range of plausible scenarios when designing its new severe space weather preparedness strategy 
  • works with the Met Office to decide what long-term forecasting capability and what level of resilience the UK requires 
  • develops a more detailed and precise whole-of-society approach, including a communications plan for UK businesses and citizens in the event of an emergency 

“The government has invested in improving the UK's forecasting and is taking steps to increase its resilience to severe space weather.

“As the government develops its new severe space weather preparedness strategy, DSIT and the Met Office should work collaboratively to further improve forecasting and resilience.”

Gareth Davies, head of the NAO

Read the full report

The UK’s resilience to severe space weather

Notes for editors

  1. The Department for Science, Innovation & Technology (DSIT) coordinates the government’s work on severe space weather, having formally taken on this role in December 2025. The Met Office is responsible for risk identification and risk assessment. 
  2. In 2014, the Met Office opened its Space Weather Operations Centre (the Operations Centre), which it reports to be one of a handful of 24/7 space weather prediction centres globally. The Operations Centre issues space weather alerts and specialist forecasts that can help sectors take preventative action, for example shutting down at-risk electricity transformers to prevent damage. 
  3. The UK is a member of European Space Agency (ESA), which provides access to large-scale multi-national space programmes, such as the space weather mission, Vigil, which aims to improve the accuracy of forecasts of coronal mass ejection arrival times. To date, the UK has contributed just over half of the overall funding, with a total UK commitment to date in the region of £300 million. The Vigil satellite is expected to launch in 2031, with an operational life of five years. 

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