Optimism bias in public sector projects is not a new phenomenon. But it is one that persists, frequently undermining projects’ value for money as time and cost are under estimated and benefits over estimated. This report uses our back catalogue to illustrate the consequences of over optimism. In doing so, we have identified some contributory factors – such as project complexity and an organisation’s culture of challenge.
This review of five major rail projects highlights lessons the Department for Transport should apply to current and future rail programmes.
The DfT and Transport for London have done well to protect taxpayers’ interests in Crossrail but risks remain including delivery of the trains.
The Department is not able to demonstrate the effectiveness of how it and others intervene in underperforming maintained schools and academies.
The use of confiscation orders to deny criminals the proceeds of their crimes is not proving to be value for money.
The report covers HMRC’s progress in operating the PAYE service, its implementation of its new Real Time Information service and its performance in tax collection and in reducing error and fraud in personal tax credits.
The Home Office spent at least £830 million between 2003 and 2015 on the e-borders programme and its successors, but has failed, so far, to deliver the full vision. We cannot, therefore view e-borders as having delivered value for money.
The Education Funding Agency has fulfilled most of its day-to-day responsibilities, but faces increasing expectations from the Department for Education.
Defra, the Rural Payments Agency and Government Digital Service have not worked together effectively to deliver the Common Agricultural Policy Delivery Programme.
The new military flying training is 6 years delayed and there is much to do if the MoD is to get the planned benefits from its contractor.
Thameslink aims to reduce overcrowding and journey times. Initial progress has been good but a 3 year delay in awarding the train contract puts the 2018 programme deadline at risk.
The lack of predictability of funding for highways authorities has practical implications for road networks and may lead to increased costs in the long term.
The strategic case for HS2, in terms of increasing rail capacity and generating regional growth, has still to be demonstrated clearly.
The Thames Tideway Tunnel is a planned project to build a large sewer running under the River Thames. It is the Government’s preferred solution to the problem of spills from London’s sewers into the tidal part of the Thames. In response to correspondence, we explain the roles of the different parties, identify potential risks to value for money and set out what we expect good project management to look like. To avoid influencing the outcome of ongoing competitions for the construction and financing of the project, we do not evaluate the value for money of the project and the issues raised do not imply any audit judgement about its performance.
All three projects examined by the NAO have experienced significant delays stemming from a range of problems.
Payment by results (PbR) schemes are hard to get right, and are risky and costly for commissioners. Credible evidence for claimed benefits of PbR is now needed.
The new policing oversight framework has been in place for a year but already there are gaps in the system with the potential to undermine accountability both to the Home Office and the public.
Treasury expects all departments to evaluate the ex post impacts and costs of all their interventions, including spending, taxation and regulation. This activity should provide valuable information on the cost-effectiveness of government interventions, for the purposes of accountability and to learn lessons to improve current and future policies.
Long-standing issues in the rail industry and the scale of the procurements led to the DfT’s decision to lead the procurements itself, despite not having led a major rolling stock procurement before.
This memorandum sets out background information about the Crossrail programme and the current position